PAUL'S PICKS: GIRLS STATE BASKETBALL

Here is a breakdown from @Mike Lycklama with the Idaho Statesman that gives actual results vs the MaxPreps ranking. Everybody gripes about the rankings before hand. These results are pretty conclusive.

https://twitter.com/michaellycklama/status/1496228908345217036?s=20&t=JDh4qMaTMuwLet_cMXlwBA

TT

Using Max Preps is so much better than IDHSAA seeding out the brackets 4 years in advance. You'll never ever have a flawless system, but the fact remains, every team that wins a state championship has to win 3 games. It's not fun to see the best two teams against each other in the first day or two, but i'm sure it'll happen LESS now though.

I like the Seeding with the use of Max Preps but it is not perfect by any means. I don't know if perfection can ever be achieved but l think this is a move in the right direction. Head to head match-ups should come into play.

Your picks are looking mostly correct although Nampa christian is out. It depends a lot on what happens in the playin game between new Plymouth (possibly Ambrose) and the district 5 team (probably Aberdeen). If Aberdeen wins then they will play Ririe on Grangeville's side of the bracket while the other side would have Soda, Cole valley, North Fremont and Melba. Soda, CV and Melba have been three of the top teams in 2A state for the last three years (Soda won twice and Melba won once), yet they all get the same side of the bracket. Meanwhile Grangeville (who lost to Melba and CV) will have the #1 seed...

The biggest flaw with MaxPreps is relying on schools to report games without having any way to audit the results or accountability for not entering their games. Looking at 1A girls basketball their are multiple teams that haven't reported all their games. I would imagine this is same throughout all classifications. Maxpreps algorithm requires data to be accurate and the system is flawed when not all the data is collected. Now that the IHSAA has posted their "final rankings" couple that stick out and this isn't really inclusive just 5 minutes of research, I'm sure their are others. Kendrick finished 16-5 regular season not 14-5. Would that bump them past Richfield? or Troy finishing 12-9 not 9-8 would of moved them up to a high seeding. Butte County is 19-0 not 17-0, I assume don't get credit for two wins because it was put into maxpreps has a "varsity opponent" when it should of been corrected to say Watersprings. Speaking of Watersprings they finished 5-13 not 4-9 as reported. Does the snowball effect of a couple games change their positions for the better or worse? Shouldn't every game be entered into maxpreps? The point being how accurate are these ratings if all the games aren't reported? If the IHSAA wants to use this model, is their any accountability for a school not having all your games entered and entered correctly? In my mind it doesn't matter if you are 20-0 or 1-19 all games should be entered. It is probably too late to correct now. When it comes to schedules and scores Idahosports has more accurate results then maxpreps. Maybe the IHSAA should hire them to audit the final maxpreps rankings. An audit of how many games were missing from the rankings would be fascinating to see. It would be even more fascinating to see if the rankings/seeding change once all games were entered.

Lastly, the running up the score comment above isn't a maxpreps issue. My understanding through calspreps is that basketball has a 20pt cut off. When by 70 or win by 20 you get the same point differential credit. It is up to the coaches and schools to understand that a 20 point victory is the same as a 100 point victory. Football has a point differential of 15.

The boards were one of the greatest treasure of Idaho High School sports back in the early 2000's. I would love to see it gain a following again.

Teams will be seeded on the state tournament brackets 1-8, after districts are over, using the REGULAR SEASON, Maxpreps rankings. This should help: https://www.idahosports.com/blogs/blog.aspx?contentid=2002

I understand the Max Prep ranking and what it is designed to do. I do like the format, but there is a huge flaw that needs to be addressed. We saw this during football and its come into play with basketball. Teams have to win big in order to improve ranking or chance at playoff spot. So teams have to in a sense run up the score in order to improve chances of better rankings. I have talked to a few coaches having heated exchanges due to running up the score on them all because of the Max Preps Ranking. If we continue with Max Prep rankings, we might as well take the sportsmanship aspect importance away. It will never be ok to run the score up on anyone ever in my opinion. Max Preps is designed for programs doing the right thing but won't make playoffs or a lower seed. Then designed for programs who don't do the right thing, run the score up but rewarded with a higher seed. Take Melba and Cole Valley for example. CV swept Melba in girls basketball this season. Yet Melba is ranked ahead of CV on Max Preps rankings. You beat someone twice during season, you get ranked ahead of them, its that simple. Its not making a case for Cole Valley, it is rewarding them beating Melba twice. We need to figure out how to fix the huge flaws in the system!!

I believe you should have put Cole Valley in at the #1 seed. They have 4 losses on the season but you need to look at 3 of those losses. Lost to Burley 41-55, lost to Bonneville by 1, and lost to BK by 8.. That is impressive for a 2A school. They also smoked Grangeville 42-28. They only real slip up was the loss to Lapwai which was a big loss, but Lapwai is still a 16-3 team so they were no easy task. If nothing to crazy happens during the tourny my pick to win the championship is CV.

In the 2A ranks, if Soda Springs comes in as a 4 seed, I don't want to be on their side of the bracket. Soda Springs has just better than a .500 overall record but they have 2 losses to 4A Preston(ranked), 3A Sugar-Salem(ranked), they split with 3A Snake River(ranked), 2A Ririe(ranked), 2A Grangeville(ranked), 1AD1 Lapwai(ranked), and Star Valley Wyoming. Soda Springs might be a good pick to win the 2A State tournament this year.